Canada’s population could hit 87.2 million by 2073, according to Statistics Canada.
That’s according to the agency’s “high-growth scenario” projection.
According to its medium-growth scenario, the population could hit 62.8 million, while according to its low-growth projection, the number could be 47.1 million.
In British Columbia, meanwhile, the population is predicted to reach between 6.5 million (low-growth) and 8.8 million (high-growth) by 2048. The agency has not released projections for the province in 2073.
In a population estimate released last week, StatCan said there were more than 41 million people in the country on April 1 this year.
Canada’s birth rate hit an all-time low in 2022 (1.33 children per women), meaning the population would ultimately decline without immigration.
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The vast majority of Canada’s population growth in 2023 – 97.6 per cent – came from immigration.
That rapid growth has prompted some economists to warn Canada is in a “population trap,” meaning the population is growing too fast for living standards to keep up.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also bemoaned the “massive spike” in recent migrant numbers, explaining that newcomers arriving under his government have been “driving down wages.”
StatCan’s latest data show the number of people aged 85 or older could also triple by 2073, reaching up to 4.3 million (up from 896,600 in 2023) according to the high-growth scenario.
People aged 65 and over could constitute as much as 32.3 per cent of the population by 2073, according to the agency.
Many economists and politicians believe that, in order to support those elderly people as they become economically inactive and require medical treatment, it is necessary to maintain high levels of immigration. Some countries, such as France and Hungary, have also attempted to incentivize couples to have more children.
“In all scenarios, migratory increase would be the key driver of population growth in Canada, continuing a trend observed since the beginning of the 1990s,” StatCan explained in a summary of its newly published data.
“Natural increase—that is, the balance of births minus deaths—would play only a marginal role, given the anticipated rise in the number of deaths due to population aging, as well as low fertility, a situation observed in many other countries.”
While the country’s numbers are expected to grow, much else is predicted to remain the same.
Ontario and Quebec would remain the largest provinces, though Quebec would decline proportionally.
The Maritime provinces would also see their relative size decline compared to the rest of Canada, but BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan would see their relative size increase.
