Andrew Ramlo didn't mince words today at the Southern Interior Regional Economic Summit.
"These are super uncertain times," said the vice-president of real estate advisory firm Rennie Group.
Ramlo was one of three experts on the 'State of the Economy' panel at the summit at the Rotary Centre for the Arts in Kelowna along with MNP accountants chief economist Susan Mowbray and Canadian Chamber of Commerce chief economist Stephen Tapp.
"The question now is will it be a soft landing or a hard landing?" said Mowbray.
Added Tapp: "Recession is the most likely call. Growth is slowing. These are pretty challenging times."
All this is probably not news to you.
Everyone and every business in the Southern Interior -- and around the world -- is feeling the financial pinch as interest rates rise, inflation soars, our buying power dwindles and the economy puts on the brakes.
A recession is officially declared when a country or region has two consecutive quarters of losses in gross domestic product (GDP).
BC and Canada may not technically be there yet.
But Tapp said that point is largely moot.
"When it gets to .1% economic growth or .1% loss there's not much difference," he said.
"Business and life is in slowdown, regardless. If you've lost your job and you're hurting financially, you're experiencing recession. If your business has slowed down and you're hurting, you're experiencing recession. If your income isn't keeping up and your purchasing power is down because of inflation, then you're experiencing recession."
If we do technically avoid a recession, any growth will be weak and slow, according to Tapp.
While this is bad news, Tapp said it doesn't all have to be bad news.
"BC had a more positive rebound in economy and employment than the rest of Canada and that may insulate the province and the Southern Interior somewhat from the worst of the conditions," he said.
The Southern Interior, the vast region from the Fraser Valley to the Kootenays, the Canada-US border to northern tips of the Thompson Nicola and Columbia Shuswap, is diverse with strengths in tourism, construction and real estate, agriculture, manufacturing, forestry and retail-service-trade.
That diversity may mean the Southern Interior, population of around one million, won't be as badly hit as other jurisdictions.
That brings us back to Mowbray's comment about whether we'll have a hard or soft landing.
"How hard hit we'll be will vary by region," she said.
"If the Bank of Canada continues to increase its interest rate (which it's expected to do), we're going to feel the negative effects for at least 18 months afterward because that's how long it takes for rate hikes to completely work their way through the system."
Mowbray is hoping for a soft landing because while inflation is high and interest rates continue to go up, employment is still strong -- in fact, there's a labour shortage.
"Any recession now won't be like the early-1980 because we do have that high employment now," she said.
Ramlo also referenced strong employment as being a bright spot.
"But inflation and higher interest rates are biting everyone," he said.
"When everything costs more and you're paying higher rates on your credit cards and mortgage, it's hurting everyone in the pocketbook."
The theme of the summit put on by the Economic Trust of the Southern Interior and the Kelowna Chamber of Commerce is 'recovery.'
So the summit is also looking at how the Southern Interior can plow through these tough times to better days.
As such other sessions at the summit included networking and idea sharing amongst economic development, chamber and community officials and recovery panels covering tourism and hospitality, Indigenous inclusion and reconciliation and labour force.
